Asking AI Gemini this question: -what will happen in 2026 to venezuela?

 Gemini

As of January 2026, Venezuela is undergoing a period of extreme political and economic upheaval following a dramatic shift in its leadership. The year is currently dominated by the fallout of a U.S. military operation and the resulting transition in the Venezuelan government.

1. Major Political Shift: "Operation Absolute Resolve"

The most significant event of 2026 occurred on January 3, when the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve.

• Capture of Nicolás Maduro: U.S. forces conducted airstrikes and a ground operation in Caracas, capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They were flown to New York City to face federal charges related to narcoterrorism.

• Current Leadership: Following the capture, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice in Venezuela ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to take over as Acting President. However, the country remains in a state of high tension as the international community and domestic factions debate the legitimacy of the transition and the future of the presidency.

2. Economic Outlook & Oil Production

The economic landscape for 2026 is a mix of high risk and potential recovery:

• Oil Rebound Potential: Analysts from firms like Kpler and Goldman Sachs suggest that if U.S. sanctions are lifted following the leadership change, oil production could rise to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the year.

• Infrastructure Hurdles: While a short-term boost is possible, reaching pre-crisis levels (above 2 million bpd) would require over $10 billion in investment and significant repairs to the country’s neglected power and transport infrastructure.

• Market Volatility: Global oil prices (Brent) could see a slight decrease if Venezuelan supply returns to the market, though immediate impacts are expected to be localized rather than global.

3. Social and Humanitarian Situation

Despite the political shifts, the daily lives of most Venezuelans remain difficult:

• Poverty and Migration: Roughly 73% of the population continues to live in poverty. As of late 2025/early 2026, there are an estimated 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants globally.

• Essential Services: Persistent issues with the electrical grid and water supply are expected to continue through 2026, as the "new" administration struggles to secure the foreign aid and technical expertise needed for repairs.

• Internal Unrest: While some sectors of the population have celebrated the capture of Maduro, others are actively protesting what they view as "American imperialism," leading to a highly volatile security environment in major cities.